Hurricane season predicted to be "active"
06/16/2010
An "active to extremely active" hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Climate Prediction Center - a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70-percent probability of the following ranges:
- 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher) including:
- 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to NOAA. Expected factors supporting this outlook are: upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms warm Atlantic Ocean water, high activity era continues.
As historical perspective, eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
